Emerging Markets:
Report 2026.
A comprehensive analysis of opportunities and risks across emerging markets. We analyze the shift from "China-Centric" to "Multi-Polar" growth engines.
Sarah Chen, CFA
CIO
Sarah Chen, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer at Pembrium Partners, overseeing global macro strategy and portfolio construction.
Emerging markets enter 2026 at a crossroads. Higher-for-longer U.S. rates and dollar strength create headwinds, yet specific country-level stories offer compelling structural growth that is uncorrelated to the developed world.
Regional Assessment
🇮🇳 India
OverweightStructural growth story remains intact. Domestic consumption, massive infrastructure investment, and manufacturing reshoring ("Make in India") are driving 6.5% GDP growth. Premium valuations are justified by earnings growth.
🇧🇷 Brazil
OverweightReal interest rates are among the highest globally, attracting carry trade inflows. As a commodity superpower, Brazil provides a natural hedge against resource inflation.
🇻🇳 Vietnam
NeutralPrimary beneficiary of supply chain diversification ("China Plus One"). Strong demographics and FDI inflows, though frontier market liquidity remains a constraint for large deployments.
🇨🇳 China
UnderweightStructural adjustment continues. Property sector deflation and demographic headwinds outweigh cheap valuations. We are selective, focusing only on technology autonomy themes.
Investment Strategy
We favor a barbell approach: high-conviction positions in structural growth markets (India) combined with tactical exposure to deep-value opportunities in resource-rich nations (Brazil). We maintain a currency-hedged posture to mitigate USD strength.